Trading plan exit strategy As written in my handwritten journal. (At the time of writing I had 2 x p 321 2/26 and 2 x c 318 2/26) Watching for so to touch 315-316 range and touch the bearish trend line channel(brtc) Sell spy calls at the point that sp touches the top slope of brtc @apx 315-316 range. If sp climbs to this range do not sell until sp drops to 315. And hold puts. In the case the sp breaks out from brtc sell put options @ 316.5. so the exit range for put options is 316.5-317 and hold the call option. I did not follow this as I became fearful and exited early. However, I will note that regardless of the fear my estimates were far off and would have been forced to exit regardless according to the trading plan. My total gains from the put option was $431 and my total loss for the call was $4 over all my account increased by 33% this week.
Sp is still trading within the bearish trend channel. Sp broke below the 310ish support overnight next support is apx 300ish. Em sp should continue down the BRTC until it breaks out from the top slope of the BRTC. Watching for sp to (a) drop below 306ish to fall to 300ish. (B) break out from BRTC and climb to apx 315-316 ish range.
Sp looks to have broken out from the bearish trend over the weekend however, this morning the sp dropped back into the bearish trend channel after getting rejected from the 300 resistance. Watching for sp to (a) break out and retest 300 if it breaks through 300 em to climb to 310ish - 315ish range. (B) fall to the lower slope of the bearish trend channel@apx 280ish and declining. Em sp should trade along the upper slope of the bearish trend channel before falling to 37 5ish-380ish range. 375ish is the lower rise of the bull market trend and should be a major support point for the sp.
Sp looks to be continuing up a small bullish trend. Watching for (A) sp to run up to 316ish(the major resistance) before stalling out and becoming rangebound between 310-315 ish. (B) sp to dip below the small bullish trend to fall to 305ish pull back to 309-310ish before falling back down to below 300. This would indicate the larger scale bearish flag pattern on the 4h chart is taking effect. That pattern has a 10 point drop potential over a 1-2 week period.
Today's tp (1 week options as far out as I can get them for best price) If sp breaks over 310 buy 1 call w/range if 310-315. A break of 316 2nd call w/range 316-318. Alt. If sp drops to 300 watch for 300 to break and buy 1 put range 300-298 2nd put @ 295-290.
Ok so I am still feeling bearish on spy the 1 hour charts show a very nice bear flag setup. I am watching and waiting for it to break the lower support of the bullish trend channel. I expect that once that happens this should drop over a week or so down to 275ish (that is the bulk of the candle not the tail the tail could go below 275. If the bulk of the candle goes below 275 I would start to expect recession and the need to move investment money to bonds and cds.
bearish flag in play Watching so to pull back from current prices to apx. 307-308 then fall below 305 and continuation should take this down to 275 over apx. 1 to 2 weeks. Tp: 1)buy 1xp@305-300 wait to see if there is a pullback to 307 2)buy 2xp@300-298 buy 2xp@298-295 Price target 275-280 TA: 1h chart So should climb to 307.5ish (lower rise of bull channel) so should stall @307.5ish for a bit before faling back to 305 support. Watching for support to break. So should move into a bearish trend for apx 1-2 weeks and fall. Watching supports @ 300ish, 290ish, and 285ish before final drop to 275ish which is the lower rise of bull market trend. (Note: this journal entry is late but it was taken directly from my hand written journal from the day of 3/5/20)
Bearish trend in play Watching so to move flat or trade in a range of 283ish to 277ish. Possible rise up to 286 support and then trade along the bearish trend until it falls to next support @ 26 5ish (Note the market moved faster than I expected. I did not think this price would be achievable until the end of this week. I am preparing to get out w/profits and will begin lookong for a new pattern to form for next setup). (Note: this hour al entry is late but it was taken directly from my hand written journal from the day 3/9/20)
Sp fell to the 275-265 range low of 270. Then broke out of the bearish channel. Small bull channel has formed watching for bearish flag pattern, weekly charts indicate bearish movement for the time. 4hr chart presents w/ bearish flag and consolidation . 1 hr chart indicates bullish movement within the bull channel. Em rise to 292ish stall for most of the day until touching the bottom of the low for bullish channel. Trading just above the 28 5ish support. 292ish is resistance. Note : 1) bear flag could be in play watch for drop below 270.3 2) double bottom reversal could be in play watch for 274ish to hold and a break of 287 Tp: For 1) buy 1xp(R270-269) buy 2xp(R269-267) For 2) buy 1xc(r288-289) buy 2xc(r289-290) Note: pattern recognition C&h on 1hr chart expecting sp to fall down below 273.5ish and drop to 250ish Break @ 273ish should dip below 280 support down past 273.5 and pull back to 27 5ish. Before breaking this will probably happen in AH. (Note: this hour al entry is late but it was taken directly from my hand written journal from the day 3/10/20)
Watching for so to break below bullish trendline will bull trend hold? If it does I expect sp to bounce off the lower support and climb to upper resstancearoind 290ish and rising. If lower support breaks the sp should continue to fall and view the bullish trend as a bear flag. Infering a price target (based on the previous bearish trend) of 30-35 points 40 max. Tp : buy 1xp(r 277.5-275) buy 1xp(r274-275) (Note: this entry is late but it was taken directly from my hand written journal from the day 3/11/20)
Small bear flag setup overnight 15 point drop. Em : down to 250 early morning. I expect a lot of volatility in the morning. Caution watching for v to exit on 1st chart. But indicators all point to further down. Notebservations Dmi : d->d+ adx crossing d+ Macd : avg>Val and declining Mom : -11 below 0 and decking Mesa : lead>some increasing equally Overall so is trading bearish trend. Note: market officially declared as bear market by news.
Bear market in play. My expectation for this weekend happened. Market reached the 275-270 range and rejected from the bear trend upper slope. It fell much faster than I expected taking place in the after hours instead of Monday's market open. This mornings premarket is @ 245-240 range currently watching for dip down to 237ish the lower slope of the bear market. I expect it will trickle there for a short time before climbing back up throughout the week to apx 265-260ish range(depending on length of time this range could be reduced to 260-250). 265 and reducing is the top of the bear market channel trend. And the upper slope. Secondary possibility is that the market runs flat for the majority of the week in a range of 240-237 until it touches the upper slope and falls again.
Sp looks to be consolodating down into tighter spirals. I am looking at an upper slope from 255ish and declining and a lower rise from 237 and increasing. Currently the level of top and bottom are 253ish top and 241ish bottom. Em: sp to squeeze down until it reaches the tip of the arrow before a break occurs. My belief is that this will be a breakdown with plenty of room to the downside. In the event of a breakout the bear market trend will have to fail and a bull market trend will have to take over, or the market will remain flatish and range bound. (I do not have that range as of yet)
Tp: 3/17/20 I expect bearishness to take over at some point this week. I am looking to get in with 2-8 puts over the next couple of days. Strikes I am watching are 219 and 220. With a target of 210-200. Exp. Around 25, 27, and 30th. I do not expect the price to dump that far in a short timeframe. So I will be planning to close early on each contract if o take them. 30th 219- cp7.09 target buy M5. mt3.5 27th 220- cp6.65 target buy M4. mt3 25th 219-cp5.43 target buy M3. mt2 Price checks at 248 250 and 251. For buy in.
3/18/20 Bearish flag is in play from the overnight break of the support. Currently down to 235 in premarket should retest support at 237ish. I expect a total 40 point to the downside move over the next couple of weeks. Em: So should fall at market open drop down to apx. 222 ish support stall for a time then continue lower to finish out the total of the 40 point move. Alt. Sp could continue flat and break to the upside. Would have to break out from resistance around 260. It would have a long way to go to make that transition. waiting for confirmation that lower support has broken. Before buying additional puts.
Still observing those same support and resistance levels as previously stated. So has been rejected from the slope resistance 3 times while the support has broken 3 x a new support level seems to have formed around 228-230. Watching for continued drop on 1 hr chart. Em: To 220-210 do could break out if it can clear the resistance at 240ish. Prepaired to close bearish position. Potential for bullish run is 15-20 points = the same as the bearish drop of 15-20 points. Consider taking bull position for 1 week exp. Instead of closing bear position. Viewing double bottom on 1 he chart. Tp: Buy 2xc(r241.3-241.5) buy f2f(r241.6-241.8) pt 253-255. Hold put position w/ 3/30 exp. Unless break of 260 resistance.
Sp looks to be trading up slightly in a channel. Possible sp to reach 228ish then fall. Watching for sp to break down @open 215-216 range support w/ drop to 210-206ish support. All indicators hinting at consolidation. I am watching for a possible retest of previous support/resistance levels today. Not interested in openong positions from premarket charts. Overall bearish sentiment. Price points supports are 200-190 and 160-165. Em: so should fall to 220 then pullback to 223.5ish then down to retest 216.19ish break of 216ish should result in a fall to 206ish.
