I looked at June as a new range, because January-June looks to me like it's own distribution range..... Higher volume on the highs, slightly lower volume on the lows....... Leading into a mark down phase, which begins my June range You can have ranges within ranges right?
Yes, you can have ranges within ranges, in fact the whole history of this stock is within a trading range. Dang, a reverse split at 1 for 75 and they still don't make money. I wonder if they have a physical address or just a PO box in Las Vegas? Monthly: Stocks I'm watching: AKS https://stockaholics.net/threads/aks-ak-steel-holding-corporation.800/page-2#post-51243 AMD https://stockaholics.net/threads/amd-advanced-micro-devices-inc.39/page-95 CVS F https://stockaholics.net/threads/f-ford-motor-company.16/page-13 OPK https://stockaholics.net/threads/opk-opko-health-inc.19/page-2#post-51262 WYNN https://stockaholics.net/threads/wynn-wynn-resorts-ltd.141/page-7
Distribution range help Up until now, shorting wasn't even an option for me, so I've only been focused on accumulation ranges..... But I finally decided to close my Robinhood account and I just funded my TD Ameritrade account today.... So now it's fair game! I'm looking here at S... I have reason to believe this stock is in for a beating, but I will let the chart confirm that before I make a move Here's the daily candles (Technician app doesn't have bars)... Plain to see the stopping of an uptrend and formation of a short range.... Then a break down out of that range, with previous support becoming resistance Technician app doesn't have P&F charts either, so I can't draw lines... But here's my count on a 0.25 x 1 BC = $9.50 LPSY = $9.00 11 boxes = $2.75 $9.00 - $2.75 = $6.25 Do I have this right?? If so, it doesn't seem like much of a trade.... But.... To quote Darcy Sears, cheerleader from Varsity Blues: "Things change Mox"
Looks right to me. It's hugging the breakdown level of the previous range (i.e. distribution) on the re-test. That $6.25 level was the last time buyers took over the auction (just look at it on the volume histogram on that day in October). Market makers will want to see if there is still interest there - but $7.05 would be a safe scale out spot on the way down ......... that's IF this scenario plays out. All bets are off if it Wyckoff Springs back inside that range.
I saw that too.. $6.25 looks like the blast off point in 2016 Could be met with demand and stall there... But I have a feeling it won't
Options are a subject I've been avoiding for a while now!... I know the basics, and while it's better for small capital, I don't think it's better for TINY capital Cause, one strike and I'm out..... If I take a %5 loss buying a stock, I still have %95 to try again..... If lose an option contract, I lose it all and start over Right??
But with options you have less invested for the same or more gain. So, if you were to short the stock and are willing to get stopped out with a $100 loss, you'd limit your put purchase to that amount. You get a crap load of leverage with options but timing is everything. Puts just out of the money are cheapest to buy when the stock price is making a high and more expensive when making a low. The other problem is time decay. Your puts get less and less valuable as they approach expiration.....sort of like house guests and dead fish.
Here's another way to look at a $0.25 x 1 PnF objective: HOWEVER, as Rock pointed out, that little range after the smack down could turn out to be a spring. No follow-thru is troubling. The volume on the smack down is large yes, but doesn't really stand out on the volume chart....so it is questionable if it was a sign of weakness (SOW). Since demand is in the background (uptrend), supply has to prove itself. Do you think it has proven itself? Why won't it continue down? Is the CM buying it? EDIT: The other thing worth noting is that it didn't spend much time above the PSY line. If the CM was distributing I would think he'd jack the price up above the PSY line and do it up there before that ER smack down.
I think it is best to learn timing by sticking with stocks and learn about options as you go. I would do more option trades but they take more attention than I currently have time for. Also, in a retirement account you are generally limited to selling puts (bullish position) and selling covered calls (collecting premium on stock already owned). There are all sorts of options strategies, like vertical spreads (bullish and bearish), calendar spreads, butterflies, condors, etc, etc. I just don't have time for it. And to be honest, I prefer timing the market rather than defining my risk. Defining risk is for those who have no sense of timing in my opinion. But there is a place for all of it. For example, if I had time I might play some ERs with vertical spreads; straddles or strangles. But a more important question.....J hooks or circle hooks for catfish?
By all means, I'm no expert and pretty much in the same boat as you, maybe you could paper trade a few options on the same stocks you trade. I try to stay basic, buying calls-puts. On my 2 hold positions, I sold calls for income and bought puts for a slight hedge. I play SPY, "BOTH SIDES" pretty regular. Just read the first post, don't want to clog up Onepoint's thread w off topic stuff.
Yep, when I do trade options that's what I like to do too; stick with buying calls or buying puts just out-of-the-money, all or nothing. Mostly because I like timing the markets. Don't worry about clogging up the thread. It's open to anyone. Would like to stick close to Wyckoff related stuff but Wyckoff can definitely be applied to options.
Be careful of shorting Sprint because they could get bought out by a bigger telecom. The people who panicked and sold on the ER are the ones who think the earnings numbers matter in this play.
If you're still finding your way around this type of method - I would hold off on anything that involves time decay. The more often you get to purely trade the chart of the stock the better.
Took a look a little further out at why that follow thru has been poor - it's actually the bottom of a distribution range that took place from Q1 and Q2 of 2014, but currently acting as support.
Yep, I see what you're looking at. So maybe it has more work to do up here? Apparently from the P&F it has already built enough cause for 5.75 which jives with that 5.83 swing low. Or it is a spring and this range is re-accumulation and building cause to head up to re-test 11.47. Hmmm, I'm leaning bullish. Weekly:
Well, while i was distracted by S, BBRY finally made a move So I'm all in at $10.30 (stop@ $9.78)... And to think, I was in at $8.90 before I sold it to switch accounts Oh well... Looking at the overhead resistance around $11.70, I might be able to move my stop up to my break even point before a pull back happens
I like J-hooks (preferably offset J-hooks)... Higher percentage Circle hooks are aimed at the catch & release angler... Since they typically only penetrate on the way out, you get more "lip hooks" and less "throat hooks" But if the fish is going in the frying pan anyway, what's the difference??
