Beating the S & P 500

Discussion in 'Investing' started by ElectricSavant, May 25, 2019.

  1. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Well...Thanks folks for reading this thread. Hitman, I will look at Fundrise.

    Now...

    This has nothing to do with investing but I want to share my last 24 hours with you folks...I treat problems with a satirical approach. I have learned to do that in life.

    As you know I work at 60 years old as a non-emergency medical transportation rideshare driver. It pays $1.15/ mile and I am an independent contractor. Anyways...I get a phone call from dispatch (I never get called as everything is dispatchched from the app.) The dispatcher says I am going to get a rescue ride (it was 4:00 pm). One of the drivers got a flat tire on the freeway with a passenger onboard. So I drove to the side of the freeway and picked the passenger up ( her name was Joy). When I left I myself picked up a screw in my tire and had to pull over. Poor Joy....two cars and two rescues!

    So I waited for AAA and they sent a trainer and a trainee. When the trainee put my spare on he appantley crossthreaded one of the studs which I found out about later.

    I figured well I will call Wifey and tell her I would eat dinner at In & Out Burger. When I arrived at In & Out they were closed because they had no natural gas to grill with.

    So I went home which is 45 minutes away. When I got home I ate some leftovers and proceeded to my home office (my favorite place). I wanted to play the lottery in this online lottery pool that I am a member of. I could not play as it was full...so I went to bed.

    So this AM I drove to Discount Tire who sent me to Brakes plus to get the space saver wheel off and a new stud. I waited at Discount Tire for 1.5 hours....I am sitting here at Brakes Plus now and they are so busy this will take several hours just to get a mechanic to look at this...estimate $150.00

    So..I am not finished yet..I get a phone call and in my mind the satire is strong and I am ready for almost anything. I need a new rear end in my Hummer H2 because the last mechanic replaced my rear seal and reassembled the axel incorrectly. This is $2,904.00 to repair.

    Thats my story
     
    #101 ElectricSavant, Jul 3, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
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  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    That is some good luck @ElectricSavant. You should head to the casino!
     
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  3. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    By the way...the toilet was broke at Discount Tire (would not flush and the water was all yellow)..I pissed in it anyways.

    Happy July 4th. everbody!

    Watch for the new thread. Testing is going on as we post.

    ES
    ..
     
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  4. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Holding 50% in cash allows for an investor that is 60 years old to invest in individual stocks with the other 50%. In the S & P 500 the weighting favors a higher weighting with a small number of stocks. I am studying this and discovering why it is hard to beat the S & P 500. It is not impossible. I am enthusiastic about using moments of momentum to beat the S & P 500. I envision Moments of Momentum as a new trading NONETF (NONMOM) that I want to share here in Stockoholics :)

    M1 Finance favors the type of Investing that is more appropriate for a "Buy & Hold Investor" that tailors a very well diversified portfolio to weather long-term holds.

    I agree with Bill Gunderson that total return is ALL THAT MATTERS. I have shelved Dividend Aristocrats. Listen to this podcast if you have time: http://gundersoncapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BestStocksNow-190703.mp3

    I am trying to stay away from ETF's and stick with individual stock picks. I interpret that TomB16 might agree with this. Anyways....it is my understanding the path to beating the S&P 500 would require individual stock picks as even the INDEX ETF would not keep up with the ACTUAL S & P 500 performance. The more instruments that are open the better as it represents how diversified NONMOM is.

    ES

    P.S. So NONMOM holds 50% in cash and the other 50% in certain individual stock picks from various paid tools and unpaid tools used to evaluate the holdings with. I want to present NONMOM with stock picks that I will publish here in Stockoholics but I am not the author of these tools that I am using so I cannot share with the transparency that I strive for. Please try to understand. NONMOM will be an active NONETF (non exchange traded fund) similar to an actively traded Mutual Fund that holds symbols that represent moments of momentum.
     
    #104 ElectricSavant, Jul 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2019
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  5. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    I want to develop NONMOM here in Stockoholics and any contribution from readers here would be much appreciated. Imagine you are creating an ETF that slices moments of momentum. How would you do it? I would like to incorporate your ideas with my exisiting methods to create an awesome NONETF (non-exchange traded fund). If it ends up beating the S & P 500 well that would be a bonus :)

    HeHe...The TradeVesting world is ripe for NONETF's. The new thread is forthcoming when NONMOM is ready...stay tuned.

    ES
     
    #105 ElectricSavant, Jul 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2019
  6. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Some NONMOM highlights:

    • 50% cash
    • Not limited to S & P 500 Stocks.
    • No defined holding period.
    • Specializes in moments of momentum.
    • Appropriate for investors with a 5Y or less time horizon
     
    #106 ElectricSavant, Jul 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2019
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  7. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Thus far the new thread that is being planned trades the same portfolio that this thread did with the following changes:

    50% cash
    no dividend aristocrats
    no bonds
    The Best Stocks Now scanner still used (author has not backtested my unique use of his scanner) .
    Other tools that have not been backtested are being tested.

    NONMOM is exciting to me and I am hoping that there can be a collaborative effort to build this NONETF here in Stockoholics. It can help the readership here and also help investors and readers here to self-manage a portion of their portfolio.

    ElectricNONSavant
     
    #107 ElectricSavant, Jul 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2019
  8. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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  9. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    The S & P closed above 3k on Friday 07/12/19....

    https://stockaholics.net/threads/beating-the-s-p-500.8376/page-3#post-102204

    ES

    P.S. The testing that I am doing does not beat the S & P, so I have not started a new thread as I feel I have nothing to share and I do not want to waste the readers time here. If I get an edge surely I will post. Finding a portfolio with a sensible mix of cash and stocks to tame volatility for a 5 year horizon seems impossible to do.
     
  10. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    You know....fighting for fractions of percentage points while risking 50% of my portfolio does not make sense...but to beat the S & P one would need 100% in stocks, which I will not do.

    Do I think there will be volatility going forward...YES

    Earnings are the only stimulus to keep me in this game.

    ES
     
    #110 ElectricSavant, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
  11. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    You know...It seems to me that the obvious may not be the best pick. One needs to uncover a stock that may not present well as everyone jumps onboard the good ones. You need to be there BEFORE.

    I am going to test those stocks that presented momentum in their history that not many predicted and ask why?

    Just a thought.

    ElectricYouCan'tJudgeaStockByitsCoverSavant

    views = 3011
     
    #111 ElectricSavant, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
  12. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    My vision is to use these paid services that I am testing to come up with a hybrid list for NONMOM. I use a Fundamental approach without regard to TA, thus the services (currently three) that I use do not use TA. It is nice to narrow the universe by paying for fundamental stock picks to evaluate. I am noticing that during this latest testing that there is profit taking along the way. I do not want to needlessly churn but instead capture moments of momentum.

    For those of you that are reading this thread I am using it to record my thoughts and be more accountable. Please forgive my ramblings.

    ES

    views=3104
     
  13. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    I went short the S & P Tuesday & Wednesday and Today. Well 2 out of three I got right...

    views= 3239
     
  14. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    My testing is very exciting. If you were to go long the S & P 500 on Tuesday 07/16/2019 you would be down on the close of Friday.

    But....that portion of the NONMOM portfolio was up 1.19%

    Testing continues.... (NONMOM will publish soon)

    ES

    views = 3315
     
  15. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Still short the S&P 500 (SH) for Monday....
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you're doing well in this market contraction, ES.

    These are the times when you can gain excellent data on your strategy.
     
  17. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    Yeah...i know how large of a drawdown i can get...lol
     

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