This headline is a total exaggeration. I expect that the BULL MARKET will continue and will last a long time....regardless of the NVDA earnings. BUT......with this company now having the largest market cap of any company in the world....the earnings are important. At the moment the stock is down today.....as we head into earnings after the bell today. Why Nvidia earnings could be a sink-or-swim moment for this bull market https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...im-moment-for-this-bull-market-110052006.html "Chip stocks are down 3% since the election. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up by about the same measure. Once the pillar of this two-year bull market, semiconductors have been a net drag on US stocks over the last four months. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings — coming after the bell Wednesday — will provide a reality check on just how important the AI poster child (and its cousins) are to this rally. Tom Essaye, founder and president of the Sevens Report, recently joined Yahoo Finance and broke down the key elements traders are looking for in Nvidia earnings Wednesday. "It's all about the guidance. How enthusiastic and how aggressive [Nvidia is] on the guidance," said Essaye. "It's a growth story here. We all know it. It's the future. It's the next big thing. They've got to keep us excited about it via this earnings print." Nvidia has roared back strong since its July slump, rising 45% from the major August low. The chip stock — up nearly 200% this year and up over 1100% in the last two years — hit record highs following the election. But many of Nvidia's peers, especially smaller ones, have become a net drag on the industry and US stocks writ large since the start of the second half of the year. Semiconductor returns during the second half of 2024 The worst-off among this group of chip stocks, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), faces idiosyncratic problems as it struggles to avoid delisting on the Nasdaq exchange. Qorvo (QRVO) is down over 40%, as is Mobileye Global (MBLY) in the second half of the year so far. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), Micron (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Microchip (MCHP) are all down more than 20%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — seen as Nvidia's biggest competitor — is down 14%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX), which tracks chip industry stocks, has fluctuated for several months. And a fresh two-month low on Monday this week made some technical traders nervous. To be fair, the US rally has already broadened in the third and fourth quarters far beyond the influence of chip stocks, and that's likely to continue next year, as Josh Schafer wrote Monday. "Nvidia is not the full market driver that it was, say, earlier [in the rally]," said Essaye. Since the second quarter, Tech (XLK) has been the second-worst-performing sector after Healthcare (XLV), barely in positive territory. Accordingly, investors might wonder if this bull market can continue if tech suddenly becomes an anchor on the S&P 500. And should Nvidia — "priced to perfection" according to many analysts — underdeliver and underwhelm, investors may face that reckoning. But Essaye is willing to overlook some of the recent weakness in this "bellwether" stock, citing pre-earnings jitters. It's hard not to be optimistic, based on the momentum of the past two years. "They've got a tough tightrope to walk, but they've done it successfully so far," he said. "I think they can do it again." MY COMMENT The exaggerated and scary headline DOES NOT match the content of the article. I expect that the BULL MARKET will be just fine going forward regardless of how tech and chip companies do in general. Over time.......yes time....the big tech companies and big chip companies will do just fine and will reward investors very nicely.
We are seeing a NORMAL market pause today with all the big averages in the RED right now. This is totally expected as the markets wait for the NVDA earnings after the close today. Personally I am just about ready to start CELEBRATING the huge gains we have seen this year. We are now down to the final SIX WEEKS of 2024. It is unlikely we are going to see a sudden correction and we have racked up MIGHTY gains this year in all the big averages. Many investors like myself are siting on MASSIVE gains for the year.......well over +50%. Gains like this are extremely RARE in any year or for that matter any decade. Even with a 10% hit before year end.....WHICH I DO NOT EXPECT.....it will be an EPIC year for long term investors. Ok.....I just JINXED us all.....sorry.
That is about it for me so far today......nothing to do but wait for the NVDA earnings and see how the markets react. I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir (Junior position) Chipotle Mexican Grill (Junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis." #21600
Ok one last thing......How about that Bitcoin? It is on fire right now. BUT....it often tends to be boom or bust. I STILL wish I had held onto my one Bitcoin......oh well.....hindsight is a bitch.
Can't win them all W! I never got into bitcoin, probably because I'd have to join another trading platform to do it. We all have our regrets: woulda, coulda, shoulda... but we didn't. We did make some right choices and got some pretty big gains elsewhere so the real losers are the ones that stayed out of the markets the last decade. NVDA YTD: 200% BitCoin YTD: 113% NVDA 5 year gain: 2,650% BitCoin 5 year gain: 1,185%
I'm not sure the market jitters are related to NVDA earnings. Seems more like it may be related to some of the global issues mentioned upthread. Maybe it will moderate and close out green again.
Here is a nice article about the "miracle of US equities." It is a good reminder of sticking with it through thick and thin. When you think back over time about all of those "scary" headlines and all of the events the market has been through, it is a wonderful thing to have the privilege and opportunity to have investments. It is amazing. The Miracle of U.S. Equities Posted November 19, 2024 by Ben Carlson The best compliment I can offer any financial writer: I wish I had written that. I’ve had that thought about John Rekenthaler’s work numerous times over the years. I’ve always admired his common sense, straight-shooter approach to investment writing. Last week, Rekenthaler penned his farewell column for Morningstar. Instead of providing a retrospective on his own career, he wrote an ode to the U.S. stock market. Rekenthaler joined Morningstar in 1988. He wrote about how the stock market has been doubted ever since: Among the first issues of Barron’s that I read featured a gentleman named Bob Prechter, who predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would soon drop to 400. At the time, the DJIA was at 2,000. It’s now just north of 44,000. Prechter’s claim was extreme, but his sentiment was typical. The arguments against stocks were legion. After 12 years of GOP prosperity, a Democrat was in the White House. Equity investors were irrationally exuberant. The CAPE ratio showed that stocks were historically expensive. The global economy’s “New Normal” after the 2008 global financial crisis would depress equity prices. The Federal Reserve had propped up the marketplace through its policy of quantitative easing. Beware when it removed the training wheels! That is my salient career memory: the perpetual belief that equity investors had missed the party. Yet, they never have. There was an ever-present wall of worry for Rekenthaler’s entire 37+ year career in the investment business. You could credit the Federal Reserve, interest rate policies, government spending, rising valuations, etc. for this run but look at the fundamentals: Earnings were a ten-bagger. Revenues grew. Dividend payments grew. So stock prices went up…a lot. Rekenthaler called his farewell column “a tribute to the miracle of U.S. equities.” Now I could hit you over the head with the wonderful returns during the bull markets and best times but the truly miraculous returns include all the bad stuff that’s taken place over the decades. I looked back at the historical returns from some of the worst starting points in stock market history to be an investor: I took the returns from the start of each year that included some of the most unfavorable market, economic and geopolitical events of the past 100 years or so. The results have been spectacular even from awful starting points. Time heals all wounds in the stock market. Obviously, the usual caveats apply here. The winners write the history books. We don’t know if the next 100 years will be as good as the last 100 years blah, blah, blah. I’m a fan of celebrating your wins. We should be celebrating the miracle of the U.S. stock market. It’s the greatest wealth-building machine on the planet.
I cant complain about a single Bitcoin.....although I do once in a while. The money I have in the stock markets has done much better. From the article above regrading the SP500: "The results have been spectacular even from awful starting points. Time heals all wounds in the stock market....... I’m a fan of celebrating your wins." "We should be celebrating the miracle of the U.S. stock market." "It’s the greatest wealth-building machine on the planet." YES....it is....especially if you are a LONG TERM INVESTOR. AND YES......I am a BIG FAN of CELEBRATING when you are doing well in the markets short term or long term. Your brain deserves the psychic and physiological reward. Let the DOPAMINE flow. This is why I was thinking last night that I would begin the CELEBRATION early this year with six weeks to go. I probably have a YTD gain of over +60% right now. Even if I went down to +40% YTD over the net six weeks it would still be a very RARE and EPIC year for me.
LOL.....here I am talking about CELEBRATING when I dont have a single stock UP today. EVERY one of my nine stocks is RED, RED, RED. Who cares.......I am in CELEBRATION mode. BRING IT ON.
NVIDIA. Nvidia nearly doubles revenue on strong AI demand https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia reported earnings that beat expectations for sales and earnings, while delivering a strong forecast for the current quarter. Here are the results. Revenue: $35.08 billion vs. $33.16 billion expected by LSEG Earnings per share: 81 cents adjusted vs. 75 cents adjusted expected by LSEG Nvidia said it expects about $37.5 billion in current quarter sales, versus $37.08 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG." MY COMMENT Good initial info.
Here is more: Nvidia earnings, forecasts top expectations as 'age of AI is in full steam' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...as-ai-fever-powers-wall-street-134840802.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) reported its Q3 earnings after the bell on Wednesday, beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines on the strength of sales of its high-powered AI chips. The world’s largest publicly traded company by market cap, Nvidia reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.81 on revenue of $35.1 billion. Analysts were anticipating EPS of $0.74 on revenue of $33.2 billion. Nvidia also said it anticipates revenue of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. That's just ahead of Wall Street expectations of $37 billion. Nvidia's stock price fell roughly 1% on the news. “The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, said in a statement. “Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference." The chip giant's Data Center business, which makes up the vast majority of its revenue, brought in $30.8 billion in the quarter, topping analysts' expectations of $29 billion. The segment generated $14.5 billion in Q3 last year. Nvidia's gaming revenue came in at $3.3 billion from the $2.8 billion the division brought in last year. Analysts were looking for $3 billion. Nvidia's stock has continued to rocket higher throughout 2024, thanks to the explosive growth in AI across the tech landscape and beyond. Shares of Nvidia were up 192% year to date as of Wednesday, easily outpacing any of the company’s chipmaker rivals. AMD (AMD), the closest competitor, has seen its stock price sink over 5% year to date, while Intel (INTC), which is contending with a difficult turnaround, has seen its stock plunge nearly 52%. Nvidia is facing an uncertain future, given that Donald Trump has threatened to put blanket tariffs on products from around the world. In addition, the president-elect has raised the specter of tariffs on Taiwan-made chips. That would be a potential alternative to the CHIPS Act, which is designed to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the US. The vast majority of Nvidia’s chips are built by TSMC in Taiwan. A tariff could mean that Nvidia will charge more for its AI chips, depressing margins, or pass the added cost on to its customers. Investors are sure to be looking for any guidance Huang has to offer on the topic." MY COMMENT Of course the stock was down on a HUGE EARNINGS BEAT. Now we wait for the nit-pickers to have their fill of parsing earnings and forward guidance.
As for me today.....I came back from a BIG loss to a medium loss today. Very good improvement by the time we got to the close. I even managed to have a couple of stocks in the GREEN.....AAPL and CMG. I only lost out to the SP500 by 0.69% today. I will definately take it.....not that I have any choice.
As expected.....as usual. Nvidia fourth-quarter revenue estimate fails to impress Wall Street https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-chip-leader-nvidia-forecasts-212159339.html
It is all just really funny to see. As if there is ANY measure of what this company has done or is doing that should fail to impress....."Wall Street". I am already moving on........LOL....just the usual insanity. I will simply say....is there ANY company or stock that has done what NVDA is doing right now or has done over the past 4-5 years on a consistent basis? I have ZERO plans to trim my NVDA holding and will hang onto my shares for the long term......in spite of the "Wall Street" BS.
MORE. Nvidia nearly doubles revenue on strong AI demand https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations for sales and earnings, while delivering a better-than-expected forecast for the current quarter. Revenue continues to surge at Nvidia, rising 94% on an annual basis during the quarter ended Oct. 27. An earnings call with analysts and CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. NVIDIA reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations for sales and earnings, while delivering a better-than-expected forecast for the current quarter. The results show that Nvidia is continuing to grow quickly while demand for its powerful AI chips remains high. Shares fell 2% in extended trading. Here are the results. Revenue: $35.08 billion vs. $33.16 billion expected by LSEG Earnings per share: 81 cents adjusted vs. 75 cents adjusted expected by LSEG Nvidia said it expects about $37.5 billion plus or minus 2% in current quarter sales, versus $37.08 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. The fourth-quarter forecast implies year-to-yeargrowth of about 70% from a year earlier, a slowdown from 265% annual growth in the same period a year prior. Revenue continues to surge at Nvidia, rising 94% on an annual basis during the quarter ended Oct. 27. That’s still a consecutive slowdown from the previous three quarters, when sales rose 122%, 262%, and 265%, respectively. Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. Shares have nearly tripled so far in 2024, making it the most valuable publicly-traded company. That’s been driven by Nvidia’s data center business, which records sales from AI processors and related parts, and now makes up the vast majority of Nvidia’s revenue. Nvidia posted $30.8 billion in its data center division, rising 112% from a year ago, while analysts polled by StreetAccount were expecting $28.82 billion in revenue. Not all of Nvidia’s data center sales are chips. About $3.1 billion of it was due to sales of networking parts, the company said. Net income during the quarter rose to $19.3 billion, or 78 cents per share, versus $9.24 billion, or 67 cents per share in the year-ago period. Nvidia’s gross margin rose to 73.5%, slightly higher than analyst estimates, and the company says the increase was because it is selling more data center chips. Many of Nvidia’s end-customers, such as Microsoft, Oracle, and OpenAI, have started receiving the company’s next-generation AI chip called Blackwell. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement that Blackwell is in “full production.” Shipments of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are scheduled to begin in the current quarter and will ramp up next year, CFO Colette Kress said in a statement. The company also said that its current-generation AI chip, the H200, “grew significantly in the quarter.” “Both Hopper and Blackwell systems have certain supply constraints, and the demand for Blackwell is expected to exceed supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026,” Kress said. Nvidia’s gaming business reported $3.28 billion in revenue, versus StreetAccount expectations of $3.03 billion. Nvidia’s graphics processing units were first developed for 3D gaming before the technology was repurposed for artificial intelligence. Nvidia said the rise in sales was because of increased demand for GPUs for PCs and laptops, as well as an increase in game console chip revenue. Nvidia makes the chip at the heart of Nintendo’s Switch. The company’s automotive and professional visualization businesses are much smaller than its data center and gaming segments. Automotive sales came in at $449 million, up 72% on an annual basis, which Nvidia said was due to self-driving car chips. The segment also includes chips that Nvidia sells for robots. The professional visualization segment accounted for $486 million in sales, up 17% year-over-year." MY COMMENT BRAVO.
I can't add much regarding the NVDA earnings. Looks like a very good earnings to me. I think when you have a company (like NVDA) that has dominated headlines and earnings season, we get this bombardment of information. Every little detail is magnified. The daily ups/downs, every little snippet of information is analyzed and over analyzed at times to the point of not being overly meaningful to rational investors. Reminds me a bit of TSLA when it was dominating every news and financial site known to man. A mouse could not stir without causing some kind of story about it. It's not that the companies are not worthy of attention....even quite a bit of coverage, but that also invites all of the noise we see/hear. Many times it is a lot about...nothing. For example: Revenue continues to surge at Nvidia, rising 94% on an annual basis during the quarter ended Oct. 27. That’s still a consecutive slowdown from the previous three quarters, when sales rose 122%, 262%, and 265%, respectively. The squawking is apparently about the "consecutive slowdown from the previous three quarters from 265% to 94%." Is that really surprising or a big negative? Do they think companies just grow to infinity? Of course I ask/say that in jest. I would think that it would be somewhat expected as time goes on....but that's just me. For individual NVDA holders, a nice earnings report to put in the bank. Which most of you already knew...lol. In addition, quite a few nice earnings have came in this session.
I am really PROUD of our latest art purchase. Banana Taped to a Wall Sells for $6.2M at Sotheby's https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/banana-sothebys-justin-sun/2024/11/21/id/1188947/ MY COMMENT OK.....I lied....we can not afford this item. I guess there really are people in the world that.....just have too much money.....for their own good. It was purchased by a CRYPTO guy. BUT....this has inspired me to become an artist. My first work will be a watermelon taped to the wall with black duct tape. I say....go big or go home. I am warnings anyone out there.....I have trademarked this idea. I will than move through all the fruits and vegetables....one by one. I have an order in for a case of duct tape in various colors.
