I wish I had the patience you did. Sometimes I'm just too OCD about the time value of money as I continue to build this account up in the aggregate. I ultimately want to have two accounts - one for long positions and another for more short/medium term ones. What's funny is after, all my pissing and moaning yesterday - the two day volume profile curve has become extremely balanced and if it finishes the week this way it bodes well for next week and beyond. Yesterday was extremely frustrating because of the volatility. I absolutely did not expect such a violent flush down from 35 - but then again these piece of crap VIX derivatives are still unwinding causing these wild fluctuations across all equities.
And once again I spoke too soon. This market is so screwed by these VIX products. I'm this close to bailing on TWTR and leave the market alone for a while. EDIT: Still in. What a week.
Alright so here's the final tape for the week ..... You can see the little Wykoff Spring near that $29.50 level (which I marked in previous charts as an important POC here: https://stockaholics.net/threads/twtr-twitter.23/page-23#post-72204) and reverted back to the POC (point of control aka "most active price") for this week The volume profile curve after the earnings gap up maintained "balance". In Market Auction Theory this favors the bulls, especially in a new uptrend. Everything above the VAH (Value Area High) represents light volume excess and the VAH is likely to be re-tested
Well I envy you and wish I had time to trade shorter time frames as the rewards are greater and the risk is lower, but alas I'm blessed with a good job I'm still having fun doing for now. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Apparently TD-Ameritrade has teamed up with Twitter. https://www.thestreet.com/video/144...tter.html?puc=yahoov&cm_ven=YAHOOV&yptr=yahoo ----------------------------------------------------------------------- TWTR does not seem to want to back down. 4-hour sticks:
Post earnings chart. On 2/13 it broke out of from brief accumulation of the Q4 earnings results and above the POC (point of control or "most active price") More accumulation is now taking place at the HVN (high volume node). For longs, ideally we want to see another day or so of accumulation on low volume and the HVN grow into the new POC. This would provide key support. Notice the shape I drew around the HVN. That curve represents the new move up after 2/13 and it's very symmetrical. This is what we call a "balanced" profile. It's ventured that 75% of continued breakouts happen from balance and favor the trend. $32.50 is a shakeout area for weak longs if it pulls back a little more than expected. I don't expect much to happen into the end of the week other than it close somewhere in this $33.20 - $33.60 range barring any kind of news event. This is due to the fact that if the price action hasn't gotten away from them - market makers favor closing their books for the week at the most active price level.
Don't have time to post the chart at the moment, but prior to this week TWTR had been green for 4 straight weekly candles. Anything beyond 3 is typically unlikely from a statistical perspective. I expect some more sideways churn for a week or two and a rotation around the POC (point of control or "most active price") of this move up from 22 to nearly 35 ....... which is $33.16.
.............. and of course some research firm just released a report claiming a 42% drop down to $19 for TWTR, which is currently down 5% on the day and more than 10% since the Q4 earnings highs. Supply has come in and pushed it away from that POC I mentioned earlier. Once again in retrospect it's a mistake for me to be holding something after a 25% gain without taking some or all and re-buying on a dip ........especially after the light volume re-test up in the mid 34's. Albeit I have no idea where these quacks get there $19 target from. That would be "pre-profitability" price levels.
So the POC for February basically remained the same and closed at $33.11. This chart is the perfect example of what it's like when market makers are unable to close the stock at the most active price level. It can lead to a "reversion to the mean" opportunity at the beginning of the next month - particularly if the volume profile was bullish. We know this because of the POC being up at the upper end of the curve near the VAH. There was an HVN (high volume node) at $32.20, which could've potentially grown into the new POC had enough sellers shown up - but that didn't happen. All attempts to break below the VAL were on low volume, which is typically suspect and not to be trusted. They were practically inviting people to try shorting or for weak longs to panic and sell their shares. Price closed $31.32 on 2/28 and then as you saw it reverted back to POC.
Still holding. New chart note: Stepping-stone Cause in this coil projects Effect to $37.50. So it may be ready to break out of the coil and into the upside resistance zone. Weekly Chart:
Sounds about right. It's prototypical Auction Market Theory playing out. The reversion back to POC continues after having moved back inside of the old volume profile from Twitter's first post-IPO "range". I know you're also pitching the $56 area as the P&F long term target. I will say that panic candles are often "filled" when the tide turns.
They parked the HOD at 34.95, without testing the 35.00 coil-high. Tomorrow morning it may be rested and raring to go for that 37.50 mark or it'll morph back into the trading range and build more cause....or both.
Two hour chart showing a normal re-test of the VAH (value area high) for support. Supply has remained low during today's market pullback and I don't expect it to give out unless the market sells off - then your suggestion of building more "cause" would need to take place.
Something going on in after-hours I'm not aware of? It's down almost 2% and threatening the VAH in my previous chart. EDIT: I guess Gary Cohn is out as chief economic advisor for Trump. Of course this has nothing to do with Twitter - but 95% of stocks are manipulated by futures markets that are tied to index funds and baskets of stocks.
I'm afraid the move is a bit tuckered out at this point. In fact this move slightly above the high set by the Q4 earnings report was negatively divergent. It's a higher high on lower volume and lower RSI reading. I know in a previous chart I showed the POC at 38, but when you break it down by year - there was a POC at roughly 36 in 2015 and we basically almost hit that. I sold my position and will look to re-enter on the next opportunistic dip, but in my opinion this stock will need to move laterally for a while and build a new point of control up here in the mid 30's before any new significant highs can be achieved ...... or as @Onepoint272 would say "build more cause". I will follow up with a chart in a little bit.
Actually I may have mucked this up. I'm showing two volume profiles here - 1. The recent rally up from 31.50 to the peak of the move at 35.85 and 2. today's profile. As you can see it broke down below today's VAL, which typically leads to back-testing of prior value (POC) or VAH's. Of course I didn't have the volume profile up from #1, so I didn't notice the kiss off the VAH. Then wouldn't you know it they named a new CTO in after hours who is very highly regarded. If price jumps back inside of the VAL from today's profile at 35.00 then it's all but certain to rally back to the day's POC around 35.50. Bout to find out I guess.
Visually this is what the volume profile curve looked like for 2015. I added the market depth for each of the volume profile bars so you can see just how much volume transacted at those levels. It's important because we're talking over 170 million shares up in there in the 35.50 area and 36's. Hell another 120 million shares between 37-38. The stock will finish with around 129-130 million shares at the end of this week in the lower 35's. The good part is you're not seeing any high volume rejections up in here indicating major sellers and shorts hitting the ask aggressively. Still would seem likely the stock needs to trade laterally for a bit to churn thru this area.
Wait, those volume numbers are wrong. The greenish coloring equals buys and purple equals sell. As you can see at 36 to 37 alone there was 160 million shares.
Approaching the 50-cent-box by 3-box-reversal point and figure target of 37.50 for the cause built in the last re-accumulation trading range. The base count gives a target of 56.50 and the 37.50 mark could get exceeded by greed, but I will probably implement a trailing sell-stop soon and buy back after more intermediate-term cause gets built. Don't want to be a hog; 37.50 would be a 61% return. Daily Chart: (36.54 was the 7/28/15 close prior to high-volume gap-down on 7/29/2015 which agrees closely with Rock's 2015 POC)
Sell volume has been very low these last two days, as price has tested inside Tuesday's big up move. Good sign for longs.
I've been long since 14. I use Twitter 5x more than Facebook. I think it has huge potential for on-demand streaming with periscope and location services.
